Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
